Michael White of the Guardian has recently been writing a very enjoyable mini-series on his “politicians of the decade”. Today especially I have to admire his Tory-troll baiting style in choosing Harriet Harman. Other candidates have included Tony Blair and Alex Samond. We have Mr. Dave Cameron to look forward to tomorrow.
What I like about this series is the little “At the start of the decade/At the end of the decade” subtitles that preface each installment. Often it very simply makes a point as to how rapid the rise of a political career can be, or indeed how swiftly a giant can be toppled. This time of year often sees many facile predictions for the year ahead, but given the fast paced nature of the political world, can we have a hope in hell of predicting the key players a decade hence? Consider that Tony Blair never held any government office other than that of Prime Minister, and that was for almost half his time as an MP. Blair was as unheard of in 1987 as John Major was in 1980 . Both were backbenchers, effectively invisible to the national media. In the past high office has often been the end result of a decades long career, including cabinet positions in past governments. If the predominant media obsession with youthful telegenic politicians continues, along with the bashing of those who have - for the sake of argument – less than perfect eyesight; the trend for rapid rises and overpromotion may well continue.
As a chance to demonstate just how pointless long term projection and speculation may be, I’ve compiled (thrown together) a list of 6 politicians. They are not necessarily giants, but I would wager that all of them were unheard of by 99% of people, even within their own country, a mere decade ago. Certainly I’d not heard of any of them in 2000 (granted I’d not even heard of one of them until this year, but he’s a kiwi so that’s understandable). So where, were we to go back in time to December 31st 1999, would we find the following headline makers of the present day?
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Rt. Hon David Milliband MP - (44) Current UK Foreign Secretary since 2007. Seen as a potential future leader of the Labour Party, but also as a lightweight. Often conflated in leadership speculation as a challenger to Gordon Prime Minister Brown. Future career prospects tied to those of the Labour Party, but likely to be a key player in opposition.
Mr. David Milliband – (34) After Labour’s election victory in 1997, Blair had made Milliband the de facto Head of the Prime Minister’s Policy Unit. In 2000 he was still in this position and yet to be elected to Westminster. Milliband was to be elected to the Labour safe seat of South Sheilds in the 2001 general election.
Mrs. Sarah Palin – (45) Former Governer of Alaska and Republican Vice-Presidential candidate in 2008, Sarah Palin is currently engaged in the promotion of her book Going Rogue, and arguably of herself. Loved by social conservatives in small town America and loathed by liberals pretty much everywhere. Pro-life and anti-AGW. Suggested as a potential Republican candidate in the 2012 Presidential election. For many it would be hard to find a more terrifying prospect outside the realm of fiction.
Mayor Palin of Wasilla, 1996
Mayor Sarah Palin – (35) In 1999 Sarah Palin had won reelection to her second 3-year term as mayor of the Alaskan city of Wasilla (2000 pop. 5,469). She had previously served on the city’s council from 1992-1996. She would serve out her second term until 2002 when term limits prevented her from restanding. Her record as mayor has attracted controversy for the alledged censorship of books, including those displaying LGBT themes, from the Wasilla city library.
Rt. Hon David Cameron MP - (43) Leader of the UK Conservative and Unionist Party and Leader of the Opposition since December 2005. Most likely next Prime Minister following the 2010 general election.
Cameron as Special Advisor to Chancellor Norman Lamont on Black Wednesday, 1992.
Mr David Cameron - (33) Director of Corporate Affairs at Carlon Communications since 1994. Previously a member of the Conservative Research Department and a Special Advisor to Norman Lamont and Michael Howard in John Major’s government. Lost to Labour in Stafford in 1997, went on to be selected for Witney and win the seat in 2001.
Hon John Key MP- (48) Leader of the National Party since … Prime Minister of New Zealand since defeating Labour in the November 2008 general election. Now just over one year into his first 3-year term and still showing a significant poll-lead over the Labour oppositon.
Mr John Key – (38) In 2000, John Key had been working for Merril Lynch as global head of foreign exchange, based in London. He had been with the firm since 1995, reputed to earn up to NZ$5 million per year. Key was also a member of the New York Federal Reserve Bank Foreign Exchange Committee since 1999. Only in the following decade was Key to pursue a political career, being selected for and winning the Helensville electorate in 2002.
President Barack Obama – (48) 44th President of the United States. 2009 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate. Eligable for reelection in 2012.
Obama (March 2000)
State Senator Barack Obama - (38) State Senator for Illinois, 13th district, since 1996. Senior Lecturer on Constitutional Law at the University of Chicago Law School. Also served on several Chicago Board of Directors’. Went on to lose a bid for the US House of Representatives in 2000, before winning election as US Senator for Illinois in 2004
Mayor Boris Johnson – (45) Conservative Mayor of London since defeating Labour incumbant Ken Livingstone in the 2008 mayoral elections. Arguably the current most powerful elected Tory in the UK and eligable for reelection in 2012. Subject to speculation concerning future Tory leadership and Westminster ambitions.
Mr. Boris Johnson – (35) Editor of the Spectator since 1999, having been associated with them since 1994. Previous career in journalism with the Times and Telegraph. Failed to be elected Conservative MP for Clwyd South in 1997. Went on to be elected MP for Henley in 2001, a seat he would retain until after winning the London mayoralty. A short and controversy-prone Opposition front bench career was to take place in the interim. Johnson appeared twice on Have I Got News For You as a panelist before being elected an MP - the show arguably deserves some credit/blame for his later political successes.
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How many of the above would have been expected to rise to where they did a mere decade ago? Where should we be looking for the leaders of 2019? Without realising it, the 6 prominant politicians I picked apparently at random are within 5 years of age of each other – the last decade seems to mark the progression from backbench to frontbench for many political types of their generation. Some of their rises have been more meteoric than others, and some of their carreers had appeared to have halted much sooner than has become the case.
Tomorrow I shall cast wildly bizzare and self-indulgantly speculative predictions on where these 6 may be in 10 years time. Except for John Key, because I really haven’t followed Kiwi politics close enough this year.
